Some guy named
Nick Bostrom has been
making the rounds lately, presenting a version of the
Doomsday Argument essentially equating any evidence of past life on Mars with big, bad news for humankind. (OK, he's not really just "some guy" but actually a well-known Swedish philosopher at the University of Oxford.)
Bostrom
most recently laid out his argument in the Boston Globe on Sunday, the day NASA's Phoenix Lander successfully
alighted on the Red Planet. I'll briefly summarize his argument below, and then point out its obvious fallacy.
While not couched explicitly in terms of the
Fermi Paradox, Bostrom's argument essentially has the same point, which is to suggest an answer to the question, "Where is everybody?"
According to Bostrom, if our galaxy is populated with advanced extraterrestrial civilizations, we should have found one by now, if not actually been visited by them.
Bostrom posits there are at least two possible reasons for this failure to find ET, or for ET to find us.
First, complex life -- or at least intelligent life -- may be extraordinarily rare in the Universe.
Second, some catastrophe may tend to befall intelligent species not too long after their evolution, either one of their own making or -- more likely -- one of cosmic origin (such as a
nearby supernova explosion or perhaps
an asteroid impact).
Whether the reason is that complex life is rare in our universe or that intelligent life tends to suffer destruction before too long, Bostrom calls this limiting factor
the Great Filter.
What does Bostrom's Great Filter have to do with Mars? You can probably guess.
If simple life -- or at least complex life -- is rare in the Universe, then hopefully the Great Filter lies in humanity's past, and we have many, many millennia ahead of us.
On the other hand, if we should eventually find evidence of past microbial life on Mars -- or, God forbid, fossils of complex, multicellular life -- the news is worse, for we shall have fairly good evidence that Bostrom's Great Filter lies in our future and not in our past. (Although Bostrom does say the Great Filter could still be some other evolutionary chokepoint in our past -- for example, the evolution of language or bipedalism.)
The fallacy in Bostrom's argument is fairly obvious: its central premise -- that if extraterrestrials exist, by now humans should have either found radio signals from an advanced extraterrestrial civilization if not actually been visited by ET -- is faulty at best.
Humanity's SETI experiment is
not even 50 years old. For most of those 50 years, SETI science was a sporadic and virtually unfunded effort. It has only been since the early 1990s that the
SETI Institute has had anything resembling a meaningful budget. SETI is in the early stages of building the first and only radio telescope dedicated to full-time SETI research: the
Allen Telescope Array. Scientists are constantly exploring new SETI media, from
optical SETI (a reality) to signals encoded using
orbital angular momentum (hypothetical) to
neutrino-based SETI searches (also hypothetical).
On a related note, we did not even discover the
first extrasolar planetary system until 1992. We still have yet to find the first truly Earth-like extrasolar planet. However, the pace of discovery in
this field is quickening also and will continue to do so with the
coming launch of the Kepler mission to find Earth-like planets.
In short, the scientific search for ET in its infancy. It is far too early for Bostrom to call the experiment a null result.
Finally, as for Bostrom's claim that we should not only have detected ET's radio and television signals by now -- but actually been visited by extraterrestrials -- mainstream SETI thought now is that, due to the extraordinary distances between stars,
interstellar travel is unlikely, even for an extraordinarily advanced civilization. (Other scientists, however, disagree with this contention and
believe we should be searching our solar system for extraterrestrial space probes.)
Other arguments some have advanced to explain why we have not had contact with advanced extraterrestrial civilizations also merit mention. It is well established, from a statistical standpoint, that if we do share our galaxy with other civilizations,
they are likely to far more advanced than we are. It may simply be that for either ethical reasons (an extraterrestrial "
Prime Directive") or pragmatic reasons (the ETs don't want those they are observing to be aware of the observers), any would-be cosmic correspondents or visitors simply choose to stay out of sight.
I believe Bostrom is wrong, or at least premature. If -- in one hundred years or so -- we have finally found evidence of extinct or even extant microbial life on Mars or other bodies in our solar system, but still have no evidence of the existence of intelligent extraterrestrials in our galaxy, we should revisit Bostrom's argument.
But not before then.
So relax. The
sky isn't falling.
Yet.